The record
Every call, scored in public.
We publish the probability before the outcome, attach a falsifier and a resolve-by date, then Brier-score it in the open. Hits and misses both. No quiet deletes.
PredictionProb.StatusResolves
Fed hikes at least once by year-end 62% OPEN Dec 17, 2026
Hormuz stays open to commercial traffic, 60 days 58% OPEN Aug 17, 2026
US-Iran deal holds with no material breach 55% OPEN Aug 17, 2026
Energy-sector selloff continues, no 10% rebound 60% OPEN Jul 31, 2026
Brier score — calibrating · 0 quiet edits · full history public