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The tell

The New Fed Chair Just Tore Up the Playbook

Kevin Warsh held rates steady and refused to say where they go next. The blank box where his projection should be is the whole story.

Jun 18 9 min read
The record

Every call on the record. Scored in public. No quiet deletes.

Anyone can sound smart once. We publish the probability before the outcome, and we keep the receipts, hits and misses both.

PredictionProb.StatusResolves
Fed hikes at least once by year-end 62% OPEN Dec 17, 2026
Hormuz stays open to commercial traffic, 60 days 58% OPEN Aug 17, 2026
US-Iran deal holds with no material breach 55% OPEN Aug 17, 2026
Energy-sector selloff continues, no 10% rebound 60% OPEN Jul 31, 2026
Brier score — calibrating · 0 quiet edits · full history public

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