The news picks your team and keeps you angry. The pundits hand you takes, so you never have to build your own. We hand you the gears under the headline, then step back. Beneath the stated story.
The oil price called the war over. The insurance market never agreed, because it prices memory, not hope. And the one country that most needs the war to end is the same one that gets richer when it doesn't.
For four months oil climbed with the war. Then it walked all the way back to its pre-war price, as if the war were a rumor. This week the strait proved that wrong. Both capitals need this war over, and only one of them gets poorer when it ends.
The oil market says the war is over. Out in the Strait of Hormuz, tankers are still turning around, because a signed peace does not clear a minefield or silence a man with a radio.
A war has reached the region that holds Ethiopia's oldest Christian treasures. None has been looted yet. The danger is that the state built to guard them is coming apart, in a war the world has decided not to watch.
Kevin Warsh held rates steady and refused to say where they go next. The blank box where his projection should be is the whole story.
Anyone can sound smart once. We publish the probability before the outcome, and we keep the receipts, hits and misses both.