The news picks your team and keeps you angry. The pundits hand you takes, so you never have to build your own. We hand you the gears under the headline, then step back. Beneath the stated story.
A war has reached the region that holds Ethiopia's oldest Christian treasures. None has been looted yet. The danger is that the state built to guard them is coming apart, in a war the world has decided not to watch.
Kevin Warsh held rates steady and refused to say where they go next. The blank box where his projection should be is the whole story.
Anyone can sound smart once. We publish the probability before the outcome, and we keep the receipts, hits and misses both.